Predictions for 2017 in MMORPGs

As 2016 wraps up and we look ahead to 2017, the Massively Overthinking team is back with their signature mix of bold and playful predictions for the MMORPG landscape. What surprises might the new year hold? Here’s our take.

First, expect the shadow of Turbine's legacy to loom large, with most discussions referencing how it once shaped the genre rather than its current state. Daybreak will likely continue to frustrate longtime fans of SOE, as the EverQuest franchise slowly fades into history. Meanwhile, H1Z1's fate remains uncertain—our optimism suggests it will persevere, but skeptics shouldn’t be surprised if it falters.

Crowfall is poised to open its doors to more players, yet the launch might be more of a whisper than a bang. It will probably stay niche, but its innovative design choices—particularly those that both critics and media praise—could carve out a distinct space. Worlds Adrift may spark widespread interest thanks to its captivating art style, potentially drawing in casual gamers. However, its physics-based mechanics might become a double-edged sword, attracting exploiters and turning off some early adopters. The genre's current trend toward casual, single-player-friendly experiences continues to overshadow the creation of true virtual communities.

Chronicles of Elyria’s focus on nobility and societal management might inspire some players to build virtual civilizations, but an emphasis on traditional communities and older-school projects like MUDs could slow down its development. The game’s initial offerings will likely skew toward an older demographic, but whether it can deliver enough innovation to keep their attention remains uncertain. Veteran players like myself appreciate its ideas but struggle to find the time to engage fully—highlighting a broader challenge: translating player interest into sustained enjoyment. As with WildStar, developers may realize that what players say they want doesn’t always match what they truly enjoy.

On the mobile front, Pokémon Go will roll out Generation 2 and perhaps introduce legendary Pokémon or special events, like Mewtwo encounters. Niantic will encounter unforeseen challenges, but they’re tackling a bigger project than Ingress. Features like battles or trading may be delayed since the core appeal seems rooted in collecting and gym control, with events involving rare Pokémon likely to be the safest bets—though they could also cause crowded hotspots and logistical headaches.

Virtual reality will become more visible, but genuine breakthroughs within the MMO sphere will remain limited. Most VR innovations will be peripheral—character customization tools, standalone experiences, or lobby-style mini-games. If we’re lucky, developers might finally introduce first-person perspectives for action-oriented gameplay, perhaps even bringing VR options to titles like ESO.

Overall, the genre’s momentum will slow in its pursuit of expansive virtual worlds and social connectivity, instead shifting toward casual multiplayer experiences. Games like Overwatch, League of Legends, and No Man’s Sky exemplify this trend. Expect more titles reminiscent of Sea of Thieves—smaller, more focused, with guided social activities. This shift will frustrate guild leaders, especially in newer groups that haven’t built long-standing bonds over years of play. The "grind" and social mechanics that once drove us to seek human interaction are giving way to streamlined, engaging mechanics. Yet, this also means the human element is diminishing; fewer games will emphasize deep social interaction, replaced by shorter, more contained worlds designed to satisfy specific gaming cravings.

Finally, Star Citizen will launch a space simulation with impressive core gameplay but a social hub that’s still underdeveloped, along with a basic FPS element. The trend continues: smaller worlds, fewer options, and a focus on different games to fulfill various gaming needs—each catering to particular niches rather than delivering a comprehensive MMORPG experience.

Each year, the landscape of MMORPGs and gaming trends offers fresh surprises and shifts in player behavior. While predictions are always a gamble, reflecting on recent patterns can shed light on potential directions for 2017.

One notable trend is the evolving business models in the industry. The dominance of free-to-play games might decline as players increasingly favor subscription-based and buy-to-play options that incorporate cosmetic or quality-of-life microtransactions. This shift could be driven by consumer fatigue over shady monetization tactics that some free-to-play titles have adopted to stay competitive.

In terms of player engagement, established titles like Eve Online and World of Warcraft are expected to maintain stable audiences, with Eve Online possibly lingering around 45,000 to 50,000 peak concurrent users. Meanwhile, the overall MMORPG market could see a plateau or slight decline as newer titles struggle to capture significant market share.

Legal scrutiny around in-game gambling mechanics is likely to intensify across various countries. Governments may introduce regulations such as age restrictions on titles featuring loot boxes or gambling-like mechanics, aiming to shield minors from exposure. Additionally, stricter enforcement against third-party gambling sites that use game items or currencies is anticipated, especially with Valve, which operates marketplaces for games like Dota 2 and CS:GO, potentially revising policies to align with gambling laws.

In the competitive e-sports arena, we might observe a dip in the prize pools for long-standing tournaments like The International, reflecting a maturation or shifting focus within the scene. Conversely, titles like Overwatch could experience explosive growth, culminating in their first million-dollar tournaments, signaling a surge in mainstream interest and investment.

On the media front, content creators such as streamers and internet personalities are poised to wield increasing influence over game sales and community engagement. Traditional gaming journalism might see a decline in authority, with outlets shifting towards personalized content supported by platforms like Patreon or resorting to sensationalist clickbait to capture attention. This could lead to a polarized media environment, where ethical concerns about undisclosed sponsorships and paid placements are often ignored by audiences primarily interested in entertainment rather than journalistic integrity. There is even a possibility that some prominent gaming websites may shutter operations in 2017, marking a significant change in how gaming news is disseminated.

Overall, the year promises significant transitions across business models, legal landscapes, competitive scenes, and media influence, shaping the future trajectory of MMORPGs and online gaming communities.

In 2017, the MMORPG landscape is poised for significant shifts and bold predictions.

Player engagement with World of Warcraft appears to be waning sharply, especially after the conclusion of the Argus storyline, leading many to believe the game may enter a dormant phase once again.

However, there’s anticipation that Blizzard will surprise fans by unveiling both a new expansion and the long-rumored pristine servers at BlizzCon.

Such pristine servers might even debut within the year as a strategic move to quell ongoing dissatisfaction amid the game's third consecutive drought, despite inevitable criticism.

On the console front, titles like Marvel Heroes, Champions Online, and WildStar are expected to announce plans for console releases, with WildStar surprisingly continuing its online presence amidst uncertainty.

Guild Wars 2 is likely to reveal its upcoming expansion, titled Tears of Elona, which will revisit the nostalgic Crystal Desert region and introduce new content to excite longtime fans.

In the broader gaming industry, CCP Games could be sold to a major conglomerate, while Daybreak Games may acquire EVE Online, though details on the next game from Daybreak or updates on New World are unlikely to surface this year.

Camelot Unchained might finally enter closed beta, signaling progress after years of development, while Crowfall could face financial difficulties, potentially staggering into release mid-year.

Star Citizen, despite ongoing hype, will remain in development without a firm launch date.

Star Wars: The Old Republic will continue to generate revenue through its established fanbase, but veteran MMORPG players will remain skeptical of its long-term prospects.

The Lord of the Rings Online is expected to enjoy a resurgence, bolstered by support from a new studio, with Standing Stone Games maintaining a stable trajectory through 2017.

Last year’s predictions about Trion Worlds launching new MMOs proved to be off the mark, but this year, there’s speculation they’ll announce two new titles—one being a port from another region and the other an entirely in-house project.

The Elder Scrolls Online is set to announce a substantial expansion following its housing update, promising content far exceeding typical DLC, with strong rumors pointing towards a Morrowind-themed expansion that could redefine the game’s future.

2017 MMORPG Developments

Throughout 2017, the MMORPG landscape experienced a mix of growth, stagnation, and exciting new developments. Early in the year, World of Warcraft maintained strong player engagement with consistent updates, but by mid-year, patch releases slowed, revealing an impending content drought despite the revealing of the next expansion’s name. The upcoming expansion appears to revisit the ongoing conflict between the Horde and Alliance, adding layers of internal faction struggles that complicate the narrative beyond a simple villainous Warchief.

Meanwhile, Final Fantasy XIV enjoyed the launch of its second expansion in June, garnering praise especially for the introduction of new jobs. However, questions arose about the game’s long-term sustainability, considering it continues to release expansions with largely familiar core mechanics. Guild Wars 2’s latest expansion was fully unveiled, with promises of content that notably diverged from the features introduced in Heart of Thorns, signaling a shift in development focus.

The Elder Scrolls Online faced initial technical setbacks with its housing update but managed to resolve these issues by mid-year. Its subsequent updates concentrated on expanding the story and exploring new regions, rather than adding new gameplay systems like crime. Star Trek Online’s summer expansion overhauled core mechanics, including leveling adjustments, but failed to leverage the newer television series, creating a widening gap between franchise fans and the game’s content.

Under Standing Stone’s management, Lord of the Rings Online saw significant development efforts, whereas Dungeons & Dragons Online struggled to keep pace. Black Desert Online, which had set high standards in 2016, shifted towards more conservative PvP updates that frustrated dedicated players but ultimately stabilized its community. Final Fantasy XI’s mobile port remained mired in development issues, while Blade & Soul continued carving out its niche in the genre. Conversely, WildStar announced its shutdown by year’s end, ending its run amid struggles.

Daybreak’s launch of H1Z1 was poorly received, sparking early discussions of potential shutdowns. Eve Online experienced player decline after shifting to a free-to-play model but remained resilient, though alliances grew more strained. Overwatch’s new PvE Horde-style mode gained popularity, while RuneScape continued quietly performing well despite often being overlooked.

Star Citizen’s 2017 saw the release of Star Marine, offering only incremental improvements to existing content. Persistent behind-the-scenes issues dampened enthusiasm, despite continued fan loyalty. Chronicles of Elyria failed to meet expectations, and Crowfall’s initial launch received mixed reviews, though subsequent patches improved stability and reception. Camelot Unchained entered its beta phase, gaining traction within its niche, supported by an extensive newsletter campaign.

By year’s end, some unexpected and concerning developments emerged, yet the industry also glimpsed promising titles like New World and Ashes of Creation, both showing strong potential. New projects in development captured interest, signaling a cautiously optimistic outlook. Overall, 2017 marked a turning point, with the MMORPG scene shifting away from stagnation towards renewed momentum, despite the losses of some long-standing players like Daybreak and Turbine. The genre appeared healthier and more dynamic as December closed.

In 2017, we anticipate a brighter future for Lord of the Rings Online (LOTRO) and Dungeons & Dragons Online (DDO) following their switch to Standing Stone Games, leading to increased development efforts and clearer communication. LOTRO’s upcoming expansion is expected to briefly reignite player interest and media attention, whereas DDO's expansion may be more understated, passing with little fanfare.

WildStar is projected to persevere through the year, though it will likely struggle without significant growth, maintaining a fragile presence in the MMORPG landscape. Meanwhile, the market's saturation will cause a decline in the popularity of survival sandbox titles; Conan Exiles might perform reasonably, but most others will face diminishing returns.

The failure of Hero's Song is anticipated to result in the shutdown of John Smedley's studio, pushing the former MMO executive into another period of seclusion. Conversely, a previously inactive MMO will experience a revival under new management, and there will be announcements concerning a major new IP-based MMORPG—Star Wars could be a prime candidate.

Star Wars: The Old Republic is expected to ease some restrictions, such as command XP caps, and reopen its doors to free-to-play players. Its next expansion will likely revisit open-world gameplay, focusing on the Mandalorians and expanding the game's narrative depth.

Guild Wars 2 will introduce its latest expansion, "Shards of the Crystal Desert," which will feature a comprehensive class overhaul and a more aggressive monetization strategy through its cash shop. Despite concerns, World of Warcraft is predicted to sustain its regular patch schedule throughout most of the year, avoiding any significant droughts.

Final Fantasy XIV’s Stormblood expansion may not surpass expectations, but it should perform adequately enough to keep the momentum alive, with Red Mage classes gaining prominence. Daybreak Games is expected to announce a new project related to EverQuest, though it probably won't be EverQuest Next; fans will appreciate the new content nonetheless.

Finally, Star Citizen will continue to operate without definitive release dates by year's end, maintaining its long-standing development mystery.

MMORPG Future Outlook

Reflecting on the current state of the MMORPG landscape, I must admit that making accurate predictions is challenging because I prefer to stay optimistic about the genre's future. I genuinely believe that innovative titles and fresh ideas can resonate with players and drive growth. However, reality often paints a different picture. For instance, this year’s standout game wasn’t even categorized as an MMORPG but gained significant attention due to its crossover appeal with the popular shooter Overwatch. Interestingly, the game is essentially a reimagining of Team Fortress 2, featuring similar character archetypes, which highlights how originality is sometimes overlooked.

Looking at the biggest MMORPG expansion of the year—World of Warcraft’s Legion—it didn’t introduce groundbreaking features, and that somewhat dampens enthusiasm. It’s a reminder of how incremental updates have become the norm rather than transformative leaps forward. It’s a bit disheartening, as it suggests stagnation in the genre’s evolution.

Despite these trends, I remain hopeful about new projects like Crowfall. I wish they would achieve massive success and attract large audiences, drawn by its distinctive gameplay and artistic style. In reality, though, I expect it will find a small but dedicated community, with most players dropping off after initial excitement fades. The same pattern likely applies to crowdfunded titles like Star Citizen and similar indie ventures—they may meet their funding goals but struggle to sustain long-term engagement.

My genuine desire is for players and developers alike to look beyond cynicism and recognize the potential in smaller, innovative titles such as Trove, Rift, and Atlas Reactor, developed by Trion. I hope companies like Daybreak Games will return to daring, imaginative game design and create immersive worlds reminiscent of their earlier successes. Additionally, I’d love to see BioWare embrace the MMORPG elements inherent in Star Wars: The Old Republic—focusing on exploration, social interactions, and community building—rather than sidestepping the genre altogether. After all, the success of Rogue One demonstrates that not all fans want to be Jedi wielding lightsabers; diversity in storytelling and gameplay is vital.

Nevertheless, I anticipate that in the coming year, commercial realities will hinder these ambitions. Companies prioritize projects that are financially secure, primarily to satisfy shareholders, often at the expense of innovation. Indie developers, meanwhile, tend to cater to niche audiences, making widespread appeal a challenge. Still, I’ve been proven wrong before, and I remain hopeful that 2017 might surprise us all—and that my predictions will prove inaccurate.

Historically, predictions about the gaming industry often carry an air of speculation and excitement, and 2017 was no exception. While I tend to avoid forecasting, preferring to see what unfolds naturally, I can't resist pondering what the year might hold for MMORPGs. Expect the unexpected; some breakthroughs will emerge suddenly, catching everyone off guard. These surprises could be related to studio announcements or game developments—perhaps even both—especially since recent patterns suggest that significant reveals often come in sets of three. We've already seen two surprises involving Daybreak Games, hinting at more to come.

Meanwhile, the gaming community appears to be shifting its focus toward more intimate online experiences. The era of sprawling mega servers seems to be giving way to a preference for smaller, more tightly-knit player communities. Players are gravitating toward shards and personalized environments where they can connect with like-minded individuals. This trend effectively redefines what guilds and clans used to be, emphasizing quality over quantity and fostering more meaningful interactions within these niche groups.

Reflecting on last year's predictions, it’s clear I missed the mark quite a bit. This past year was packed with personal milestones—getting married, changing careers, welcoming new nieces, working on a novel, and assisting with a board game project for my brother. Naturally, these life events may have skewed my foresight, but I’m still eager to give it another shot.

Looking ahead, 2018 appears poised for a relatively stable landscape in the MMORPG scene. Kickstarter campaigns seem to be holding steady, cautiously awaiting how major titles like Crowfall, Camelot Unchained, Star Citizen, and Dual Universe will proceed. Optimistically, none of these giants are expected to fail outright. Crowfall and Camelot Unchained will continue their development paths, though their audiences might shift slightly as they inch toward launch, seeking the right niche.

Star Citizen is set to introduce notable new features; however, expectations should be tempered as some ideas may be scaled back or delayed, leading to a more measured rollout. The gaming community will likely split into factions—those defending the ambitious visions, critics voicing concerns, and casual space sim enthusiasts indifferent to the controversy.

Some Kickstarter projects might encounter developmental hurdles, a common hurdle in game creation. Nevertheless, because backers have already invested financially, there will be calls for increased oversight and regulation within crowdfunding spaces.

In terms of AAA development, the focus will predominantly rest on Amazon’s New World. Expect more details to emerge, particularly in the latter half of the year. While intriguing, these updates probably won't be enough to lure big corporations back into the MMO market in a significant way. Still, they could boost interest in Amazon’s broader software services, especially among indie developers.

Meanwhile, a handful of imported titles will make notable impacts, sparking discussions around monetization and cash shop practices, and maintaining dedicated player bases. Overall, 2018 is shaping up to be a quieter year for new MMO launches, with more closures than fresh announcements, especially outside the Kickstarter realm.

The Division’s moderate success last year didn’t catalyze the anticipated new genre of massively multiplayer online shooters, but it did highlight the growing viability of small-team tactical games. My hopeful prediction is that someone will blend elements from Destiny, Overwatch, and traditional MMOs into a persistent universe with quick gameplay loops centered on cooperation and competition. The concept is speculative, but keep an eye out for this innovative hybrid.

Meanwhile, Guild Wars 2 will likely shift away from its e-sports ambitions, struggling to regain lost momentum unless a compelling expansion revitalizes interest. World of Warcraft will continue to face scrutiny over private server bans, even as a loyal player base remains. Elder Scrolls Online might offset recent controversies with the announcement of new classes, injecting fresh content. Black Desert will experience a slight slowdown but should retain its core group of dedicated players.

Overall, 2018 promises to be a year of steadiness and subtle evolution—quiet yet impactful—shaping the future trajectory of MMORPGs for years to come.

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